Tuesday, May 06, 2003

SARS update

The disease is more and more concentrated in mainland China. Outstanding cases in Hong Kong continue to fall, although there have been some new cases in Taiwan, which seemed close to having the disease under control. In fact, the number of outstanding cases overall, excluding China, is falling.

Moreover, the total number of deaths, in over six months, is still less than 500. Given the current trends, a death toll for the year of less than 1000 seems quite possible, depending on the ability of the Chinese authorities to get some control on the situation.

Here is the updated Excel spreadsheet containing total new cases, cases in Hong Kong, cases in China, and total cases excluding China, to 5 May 2003.

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