Heart disease risk overstated

This is an interesting look at the dangers of risk calculation which don't give some weight to wider changes in society. It would seem that the Framingham Risk Equation, which has been used to assess whether men should go on medication to prevent heart disease, has overstated the risk to individuals. For example, from the 6643 men studied, it was predicted that 4.1% would die of heart disease. In fact, only 2.8% died, an overstatement of 47%.

Predictive accuracy of the Framingham coronary risk score in British men: prospective cohort study, British Medical Journal, 29 November 2003